denirobob
IBERIAN PRIMERA
- 28 June 2002
Hi chaps, I wrote this paper with a mate and submitted this to a number of well known journos and had a positive reply from Sean Ingle at the Guardian, still awaiting Marcotti's feedback!..
WORLD CUP 2010 - My ADV theory
Background
Many people will be familiar with the movie ‘Casino’, and the character played by Robert De Niro who manages to find an edge on the bookmakers, by finding out that a certain NFL player is having marital problems which will therefore cause him to play below par.
That edge of course is information, primarily information that the odds makers have either not been party too or have ignored due to a lack of sufficient research. Getting straight to the point, I genuinely believe that I have found that ’edge’ where the 2010 World Cup is concerned.
Basing my theory on 3 factors - Altitude, Distance, Gambling, Value. I am confident that what I offer & propose in the following document will provide you with the ammunition to make some highly profitable bets this summer.
ALTITUDE
No doubt once we enter the spring and early summer, a plethora of guides & wall charts will be available featuring each of the competing nations. From the very bad, focusing purely on players that have been heard of by your average Premiership loving football fan to the very good that offer proper insight into players, tactics, coaches and the type of football that can be expected from all 4 corners of the globe.
What I am not expecting are (so far there has been only the most cursory investigation amongst the mainstream media) any articles containing any reference to Tournament altitude unless it concerns the England team, their preparations and where they will base their training camp.
The repercussions of ignoring altitude can be found as most recently as earlier this year involving Argentina. Perennial barrel scrappers Bolivia managed to stick 6 past a full strength visiting side as thin air and lack of oxygen in the stadium in La Paz took their toll.
Although initially the Argentine FA tried a damage limitation exercise in the aftermath. Eventually Messi and his compatriots subsequently complained to the media that their lungs were burning throughout the match and that they couldn’t breathe properly. Not 1 month later, Venezuela hardly world beaters by anyone’s standards let alone great shakes in South America, went to the very same stadium and returned home with a 1-0 away win.
Maradona thought he could fly in 2 hours before, play and then fly out again (with the same team that had played 4 days earlier) thereby minimising the affects of altitude. He was sadly mistaken.
In contrast, the Venezuelans actually deployed a second string of players (mostly made up of under 20’s) and separate to the first team, and gave them sufficient time to acclimatise for a week in Quito, Ecuador and then 2 weeks in Bolivia before the match.
When you consider that Venezuela had never won in Bolivia before, it demonstrates just how important full preparation is at this high level of sporting endeavour.
One thing I must stress is that the heights discussed in the Andes are above 5000-6000 feet, and are far more extreme, than the ones to be found in South Africa’s Higher Veldt which range from 1500-2000 feet. Therefore I wouldn’t expect freak results to occur, however what I do think will happen though, is for us to see surprise results where a prepared side comes up against one ill-prepared.
With that at the forefront of my mind, I decided to evaluate each match in the group stages assessing where the game would be played, where the countries had chosen as a base and crucially travelling distance between venues.
One important thing to remember in all this, is that a team playing at altitude then playing at sea level will experience no discomfort or ill affects at all. It is only when coming from sea level and rapidly rising to a higher altitude that some of the well known symptoms - dizziness, breathing difficulties, tiredness etc.. can occur.
Because of the nature of the World Cup or any equivalent tournament, many matches will be played over a short space of time, leaving no time to prepare properly for altitude unless the actual training facilities/base hotel is located within the Higher Veldt.
It is with this is mind, that I present the second factor…
DISTANCE
South Africa is of course a very big country with a transport network that even on the eve of the tournament leaves something to be desired. I would imagine in most cases teams would choose to fly between venues of any great distance whilst choosing a coach when moving between the Johannesburg area and cities close by.
The last World Cup to feature such extremes of travelling, was in 2002 when air travel was really the only viable option as opposed to Germany in 2006 when each country had an official luxury coach to make its way around.
The overriding issue of distance is comparing what one nation must go through to complete its 3 group games compared to that of another. Clearly it is logical to assume that the team that can spend rest days recuperating, training and bonding, rather than clocking up air miles is likely to be in a fresher state.
From studying the tournament layout, I noticed a great disparity between how far some teams had to travel between their 3 games, in fact far more than I anticipated when I began this project. The measurements between venues were taken from Fifa’s own website and are purely the distance one way from venue 1 to venue 2 and then from venue 2 to venue 3. I decided to use this measurement as this is the LEAST travelling that any team would face, with the reality of course that there is a return journey and commuting between training facilities & the venues to account for.
To take England as an example - They are based in Rustenburg which is also the destination of their opening game with the USA. From here they must travel to play Algeria in Cape Town, go back to rest in Rustenburg, before meeting Slovenia in Port Elizabeth.
Some countries as you will see have been handed a very favourable itinerary such as Denmark, whilst Algeria & North Korea have logistical nightmares on their hands, with their outsiders status only increasing following the draw.
Of course, the key thing is to combine these distances with the details of altitude. By and large, the teams that have the most travelling to do, are also the ones that are facing trips to sea level e.g. the coastal cities and back to the High Veldt e.g. altitude and of course vice versa.
All of the above information would be interesting but fairly pointless without any valuation of match odds too. This third factor will hopefully help us find discrepancies where there is real ‘value’ to be found in tipping a less favoured nation at better than expected odds.
VALUE
The key point of this document is to arm you with the information to beat the bookmaker and to come to your own conclusions. All the odds on all the group matches, outright groups and outright tournament winners can be found here at odds checker (http://www.oddschecker.com).
This site pulls in odds from every major bookmaker giving you the full market spectrum of available prices. I do have thoughts on a couple of group bets and an outright winner, but for now I would like to concentrate purely on group games.
Whilst I want to encourage you to weigh up your own bets, it would be remiss of me not to point out the top 3 games that I feel could provide discerning gamblers with good returns.
As eluded too before, I have become convinced over the years that British bookmakers consistently overprice the opponents of established big teams. They do this for a number of reasons, but one of the main ones is that they actually really don’t know an awful lot about football outside a small bubble of big names & stars, particularly those based on these shores. The mainstream media are just as bad with all columns on the World Cup talking about players from the various countries that play in the Premiership but ignoring those that ply their trade elsewhere. Didier Drogba’s ‘Ivory Coast’ and Nemanja Vidic’s ’Serbia’ being two examples of this lazy journalism.
Taking all the ATV factors into account, the following games to my eyes represent a situation where an old world superpower is facing an underrated, youthful & dynamic opponent.
1. France v Mexico - Mexico win at 11/4
Not only do France have to make do with the ineptitude of Domenech, but they will have had to travel the longest distance in the whole competition from Port Elizabeth to Polokwane. Mexico on the other hand have a relatively short jaunt. France are also going from sea level to altitude with crucially their base at Pezula also at sea level, a decision that astounded me when I found out.
The Mexicans have been turned around since Sven’s abject spell in charge and Aguirre has rekindled the kind of spark we saw from them at WC2006. With Carlos Vela, and Deportivo’s Guardado they have the ammunition to take all 3 points.
2. Germany v Ghana - Ghana win 4/1
Germany have to face a trip of 1000 miles+ and play at altitude after two games at sea level. Ghana in comparison have a very useful squad and have barely any travelling at all in the group stages. This combined with all 3 of their games taking place at altitude, leaves them ample time to acclimatise and prepare. Unless Germany employ the likes of talented youngsters Marin & Ozil (both of Werder Bremen) I think the Africans will be more than a match for their slower Teutonic opponents.
3. Italy v Slovakia - Slovakia win 11/2
Despite a second round game in Nelspruit, the old tired legs of Lippi’s ageing squad are likely to be severely tested in the third game. With Slovakia playing all 3 games at altitude, the Azzurri have just 3 days to prepare after their match with New Zealand. The youthful threat of Napoli’s Hamsik and FC Twente’s Stoch (on-loan from Chelsea and having an amazing season) will get the opportunity to prove that the current holders are in need of an overhaul.
FURTHER THOUGHTS
As for Group & outright betting opportunities, I am looking at Group B to provide a decent run. South Korea at 7/2 to qualify are an absolute steal, in my opinion, with somehow both Nigeria & Greece being much more highly fancied.
Losing just once in 2009 hints at the pedigree and quality of the squad who will be immensely well prepared. I think this market is a prime example of the bookies being swayed by previous events e.g. the Nigerians of 96 Olympic Glory and The Greeks of Euro 04. There is no other conceivable reason for treating the red devils as outsiders when compared to 2 countries on the wane.
I also think there is some serious value to be had in a group forecast bet, with Argentina - S Korea - Nigeria and Argentina - S Korea - Greece available at 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.
My main selection for the outright will be Argentina. With all 3 games at altitude and Maradona finally accepting the wisdom in playing Higuain alongside Messi, Tevez or Aguero rather than all 3 mighty midgets in an attacking triumvirate, anything is possible. Despite still possessing a squad the envy of all but Brazil & Spain and largely written off by the UK press, the 10/1 widely available is genuine value. Another factor is that they have barely any travelling time with all 3 games at altitude giving them a real advantage as the tournament progresses.
Winning the group would setup a tie with runners up of A, with a quarter final against a side from D most likely. The semi final phase would present the first real challenge with Spain, Portugal or Holland most likely to be lurking however by this stage momentum kicks in.
WORLD CUP 2010 - My ADV theory
Background
Many people will be familiar with the movie ‘Casino’, and the character played by Robert De Niro who manages to find an edge on the bookmakers, by finding out that a certain NFL player is having marital problems which will therefore cause him to play below par.
That edge of course is information, primarily information that the odds makers have either not been party too or have ignored due to a lack of sufficient research. Getting straight to the point, I genuinely believe that I have found that ’edge’ where the 2010 World Cup is concerned.
Basing my theory on 3 factors - Altitude, Distance, Gambling, Value. I am confident that what I offer & propose in the following document will provide you with the ammunition to make some highly profitable bets this summer.
ALTITUDE
No doubt once we enter the spring and early summer, a plethora of guides & wall charts will be available featuring each of the competing nations. From the very bad, focusing purely on players that have been heard of by your average Premiership loving football fan to the very good that offer proper insight into players, tactics, coaches and the type of football that can be expected from all 4 corners of the globe.
What I am not expecting are (so far there has been only the most cursory investigation amongst the mainstream media) any articles containing any reference to Tournament altitude unless it concerns the England team, their preparations and where they will base their training camp.
The repercussions of ignoring altitude can be found as most recently as earlier this year involving Argentina. Perennial barrel scrappers Bolivia managed to stick 6 past a full strength visiting side as thin air and lack of oxygen in the stadium in La Paz took their toll.
Although initially the Argentine FA tried a damage limitation exercise in the aftermath. Eventually Messi and his compatriots subsequently complained to the media that their lungs were burning throughout the match and that they couldn’t breathe properly. Not 1 month later, Venezuela hardly world beaters by anyone’s standards let alone great shakes in South America, went to the very same stadium and returned home with a 1-0 away win.
Maradona thought he could fly in 2 hours before, play and then fly out again (with the same team that had played 4 days earlier) thereby minimising the affects of altitude. He was sadly mistaken.
In contrast, the Venezuelans actually deployed a second string of players (mostly made up of under 20’s) and separate to the first team, and gave them sufficient time to acclimatise for a week in Quito, Ecuador and then 2 weeks in Bolivia before the match.
When you consider that Venezuela had never won in Bolivia before, it demonstrates just how important full preparation is at this high level of sporting endeavour.
One thing I must stress is that the heights discussed in the Andes are above 5000-6000 feet, and are far more extreme, than the ones to be found in South Africa’s Higher Veldt which range from 1500-2000 feet. Therefore I wouldn’t expect freak results to occur, however what I do think will happen though, is for us to see surprise results where a prepared side comes up against one ill-prepared.
With that at the forefront of my mind, I decided to evaluate each match in the group stages assessing where the game would be played, where the countries had chosen as a base and crucially travelling distance between venues.
One important thing to remember in all this, is that a team playing at altitude then playing at sea level will experience no discomfort or ill affects at all. It is only when coming from sea level and rapidly rising to a higher altitude that some of the well known symptoms - dizziness, breathing difficulties, tiredness etc.. can occur.
Because of the nature of the World Cup or any equivalent tournament, many matches will be played over a short space of time, leaving no time to prepare properly for altitude unless the actual training facilities/base hotel is located within the Higher Veldt.
It is with this is mind, that I present the second factor…
DISTANCE
South Africa is of course a very big country with a transport network that even on the eve of the tournament leaves something to be desired. I would imagine in most cases teams would choose to fly between venues of any great distance whilst choosing a coach when moving between the Johannesburg area and cities close by.
The last World Cup to feature such extremes of travelling, was in 2002 when air travel was really the only viable option as opposed to Germany in 2006 when each country had an official luxury coach to make its way around.
The overriding issue of distance is comparing what one nation must go through to complete its 3 group games compared to that of another. Clearly it is logical to assume that the team that can spend rest days recuperating, training and bonding, rather than clocking up air miles is likely to be in a fresher state.
From studying the tournament layout, I noticed a great disparity between how far some teams had to travel between their 3 games, in fact far more than I anticipated when I began this project. The measurements between venues were taken from Fifa’s own website and are purely the distance one way from venue 1 to venue 2 and then from venue 2 to venue 3. I decided to use this measurement as this is the LEAST travelling that any team would face, with the reality of course that there is a return journey and commuting between training facilities & the venues to account for.
To take England as an example - They are based in Rustenburg which is also the destination of their opening game with the USA. From here they must travel to play Algeria in Cape Town, go back to rest in Rustenburg, before meeting Slovenia in Port Elizabeth.
Some countries as you will see have been handed a very favourable itinerary such as Denmark, whilst Algeria & North Korea have logistical nightmares on their hands, with their outsiders status only increasing following the draw.
Of course, the key thing is to combine these distances with the details of altitude. By and large, the teams that have the most travelling to do, are also the ones that are facing trips to sea level e.g. the coastal cities and back to the High Veldt e.g. altitude and of course vice versa.
All of the above information would be interesting but fairly pointless without any valuation of match odds too. This third factor will hopefully help us find discrepancies where there is real ‘value’ to be found in tipping a less favoured nation at better than expected odds.
VALUE
The key point of this document is to arm you with the information to beat the bookmaker and to come to your own conclusions. All the odds on all the group matches, outright groups and outright tournament winners can be found here at odds checker (http://www.oddschecker.com).
This site pulls in odds from every major bookmaker giving you the full market spectrum of available prices. I do have thoughts on a couple of group bets and an outright winner, but for now I would like to concentrate purely on group games.
Whilst I want to encourage you to weigh up your own bets, it would be remiss of me not to point out the top 3 games that I feel could provide discerning gamblers with good returns.
As eluded too before, I have become convinced over the years that British bookmakers consistently overprice the opponents of established big teams. They do this for a number of reasons, but one of the main ones is that they actually really don’t know an awful lot about football outside a small bubble of big names & stars, particularly those based on these shores. The mainstream media are just as bad with all columns on the World Cup talking about players from the various countries that play in the Premiership but ignoring those that ply their trade elsewhere. Didier Drogba’s ‘Ivory Coast’ and Nemanja Vidic’s ’Serbia’ being two examples of this lazy journalism.
Taking all the ATV factors into account, the following games to my eyes represent a situation where an old world superpower is facing an underrated, youthful & dynamic opponent.
1. France v Mexico - Mexico win at 11/4
Not only do France have to make do with the ineptitude of Domenech, but they will have had to travel the longest distance in the whole competition from Port Elizabeth to Polokwane. Mexico on the other hand have a relatively short jaunt. France are also going from sea level to altitude with crucially their base at Pezula also at sea level, a decision that astounded me when I found out.
The Mexicans have been turned around since Sven’s abject spell in charge and Aguirre has rekindled the kind of spark we saw from them at WC2006. With Carlos Vela, and Deportivo’s Guardado they have the ammunition to take all 3 points.
2. Germany v Ghana - Ghana win 4/1
Germany have to face a trip of 1000 miles+ and play at altitude after two games at sea level. Ghana in comparison have a very useful squad and have barely any travelling at all in the group stages. This combined with all 3 of their games taking place at altitude, leaves them ample time to acclimatise and prepare. Unless Germany employ the likes of talented youngsters Marin & Ozil (both of Werder Bremen) I think the Africans will be more than a match for their slower Teutonic opponents.
3. Italy v Slovakia - Slovakia win 11/2
Despite a second round game in Nelspruit, the old tired legs of Lippi’s ageing squad are likely to be severely tested in the third game. With Slovakia playing all 3 games at altitude, the Azzurri have just 3 days to prepare after their match with New Zealand. The youthful threat of Napoli’s Hamsik and FC Twente’s Stoch (on-loan from Chelsea and having an amazing season) will get the opportunity to prove that the current holders are in need of an overhaul.
FURTHER THOUGHTS
As for Group & outright betting opportunities, I am looking at Group B to provide a decent run. South Korea at 7/2 to qualify are an absolute steal, in my opinion, with somehow both Nigeria & Greece being much more highly fancied.
Losing just once in 2009 hints at the pedigree and quality of the squad who will be immensely well prepared. I think this market is a prime example of the bookies being swayed by previous events e.g. the Nigerians of 96 Olympic Glory and The Greeks of Euro 04. There is no other conceivable reason for treating the red devils as outsiders when compared to 2 countries on the wane.
I also think there is some serious value to be had in a group forecast bet, with Argentina - S Korea - Nigeria and Argentina - S Korea - Greece available at 18/1 and 14/1 respectively.
My main selection for the outright will be Argentina. With all 3 games at altitude and Maradona finally accepting the wisdom in playing Higuain alongside Messi, Tevez or Aguero rather than all 3 mighty midgets in an attacking triumvirate, anything is possible. Despite still possessing a squad the envy of all but Brazil & Spain and largely written off by the UK press, the 10/1 widely available is genuine value. Another factor is that they have barely any travelling time with all 3 games at altitude giving them a real advantage as the tournament progresses.
Winning the group would setup a tie with runners up of A, with a quarter final against a side from D most likely. The semi final phase would present the first real challenge with Spain, Portugal or Holland most likely to be lurking however by this stage momentum kicks in.
